Who Needs Whose Water? A First-Principles View of Transboundary Conflict
I read Jiang et al., 2025, a recent Nature Communications paper with curiousity. This paper examines transboundary conflict from surface-water scarcity under climate change and estimates that, without adaptation, roughly 35–41% of the world's transboundary river basins could face conditions conducive to water-scarcity-related conflict by mid-century. With sufficiently effective cooperation and other adaptations, that fraction…